I jumped on the Syracuse bandwagon for 1 game as they were big dogs against Indiana and capitalized now it's back to fading them as I think they are getting too much credit here as a 5 point favorite. I will say that they have revenge on their side from losing at Marquette in a 3 point game earlier in the year which is keeping me from makings this a larger play, but let me explain my logic behind Marquette as a premium play here today.
It's become clear that both of these teams will rely on their game inside the arch to win or lose games. Both teams shoot well over 70% of their shots inside the arch. So I took a look at what Marquette did on the season vs. top 2 point defenses since Syracuse is ranked 27th along with what they had to face during their tournament run and the results are quite impressive for Marquette. They are 10-6 vs. top 100 2 point defenses including 3-0 during their tournament run. All of their losses were on the road in tough environments. Nova, Georgetown, Louisville, Cinci, and Florida. Their 1 loss on neutral court was a game they dominated from 2 point range against Butler and they loss at the buzzer on a freak shot, but they already served their revenge in the tournament defeating Butler. Syracuse may be the best defense Marquette has faced this tournament, but they know the zone well and how to defeat it. Part of Syracuse's success is because they are so good against the 3 ball, but that's not Marquette's game at all they will get buckets in transition and draw falls in the half court it's a major reason why they got to the FT line 28 more times than Syracuse in their match up this season. Meanwhile Syracuse's 2 point defense has not played as well during the tournament as Marquette's if you can believe that.
Marquette has faced 2 point offenses ranked 51st, 28th and 60th and held them to 40.8%, Syracuse has faced 26th, 29th, and 114th and held them to 42.8% and now they'll face Marquette ranked 27th in 2 point % offense. On the season they are just 7-7 in those games and the losses all had something in common, those teams were also ranked top 100 in 2 point defense. The teams that were ranked top 100 in 2point offense and lost to Syracuse all had something in common they couldn't play defense - Arkansas, Detroit, Notre Dame, Montana all ranked outside the top 100 in defense while Syracuse went just 2-7 vs. teams who also had the 2 point defense to go along with their 2 point offense - Marquette, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown and Louisville all were in top 100 in 2 point offense % and 2 point defense %. I just think this is really a bad match up for Syracuse because Marquette knows them, and does not rely on their 3 point offense.
I won't go as deep into this match up, but I really like Wichita St to come out on top. Neither team is great in one category as they only are top 25 for 1 category a piece. So nothing really sticks out when looking at team strengths vs team weaknesses. I will say this about Wichitah State, this program is built on rebounding, toughness and defense and that's the type of team I like to back when we are talking about being a significant under dog in a big game. Wichitah State is 6th in rebounding % and 9th in offensive rebounding % in the country. Ohio State has fared well against these type of teams going 5-3 vs. top 25 offensive rebounding teams, but 3 of their 5 wins were by 3 points per game. So 6 of the 8 games they played top rebounding teams they would not cover the chalk they are laying today.
I also think the Big Ten is a bit over rated as we have seen some of the top programs go down yesterday (Michigan St, and Indiana the day before.) Michigan should have followed that trend if Kansas did not choke away a 14 point lead late, but what I looked at in this match up today again was 2 point offense and defense along with who these teams have had to face in the tournament. I looked at opponents and their balanced offenses and defenses and I think we are getting value here with Wichita.
First of all Wichita 41st in 2 point defense, and 66th in 2 point offense while Ohio State is 46th and 80th. What I noticed was Wichita definitely played better against better competition. First of all they kept their season average of 50% from 2 point range against 2 point defense ranked 10th, 277th, 54th and those defenses also could defend the 3 ranking 116th, 25th and 33rd. Ohio State has shot more than 3% worse (46%) against defenses ranked 37th, 220, and 230th and their defenses were also bad from 3 ranking 265, 45th and 315th nationally. They have not faced a team ranked top 100 in both categories and today will be the first time as Wichita is ranked 41st in 2 point defense and 100th in 3 point defense. Same facts are true about each others defense. Wichita's defense has allowed 39.6% from 2 and faced the 6th, 92nd, and 37th 2 point % offense all of which had pretty good balanced ranking 60th, 29th and 118th in 3point% offense. Ohio State faced 3 balanced offenses and allowed 45.9% from 2 during the tournament far worse than their season averages.
My point basically is Ohio State won't be able to get away with playing like this today and if they do it will be a close win and we will cover the spread which is what I am betting on.
